A low-voltage switchgear section ordered from Schneider Electric today is quoted at 50 weeks from release to manufacturing, per the September 2026 edition of Schneider’s Lead Times Guide, published September 2. That number is one of exactly four equipment classes, out of the eleven a factory or datacenter has to buy, for which any OEM in the United States publishes a dated lead time. The other seven, including every class over 60 weeks, are known only through consultant surveys and contractor blogs. The Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor launches today as version 0.1 to put those eleven classes in one table, with the OEM and the date next to every cell, and to say plainly which cells are an OEM’s own number and which are somebody else’s.
This piece gives away the launch table, walks through every input and how a cell is built, shows the three context series that move before quoted lead times do, tells each OEM what one disclosure would improve its row, and ends with what version 1 adds.
Source: Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor (compiled from Schneider Lead Times Guide, Siemens CompAS, Census M3, ISM Report On Business, BLS PPI, SEC filings; as of September 2026)
The eleven ranges run from 4 to 32 weeks for drives at the bottom to 128 to 160-plus weeks for large power transformers at the top, and the four OEM-published classes (LV switchgear and switchboards at 18 to 50 weeks, MV switchgear at 15 to 40-plus, MCC and busway at 6 to 40, drives at 4 to 32) all sit below the 50-week line while the seven third-party classes all reach above it.
What the Monitor Is, and Is Not
Version 0.1 is a compilation of public series, and every cell says where it came from. The Monitor covers large power transformers above 100 MVA, medium power transformers of 5 to 50 MVA, pad-mount distribution transformers, MV switchgear, LV switchgear and switchboards, MCC and busway, UPS, diesel gensets, chillers, coolant distribution units, and PLC CPUs or drives. A cell holds a published lead time, the name of who published it, the document, and the date. Where the publisher is the OEM, the cell says so. Where the publisher is Wood Mackenzie, Terrapin Construction Group, Origin Partners or VAWN, the cell carries their name and the figure is theirs, not ours. The full launch table is in lead-time-monitor-v0.1.csv, 49 rows, one URL per row.
Three context series sit next to the class table: Census M3 unfilled orders over shipments for NAICS 3353, the ISM Supplier Deliveries Index with ISM’s capital-expenditure commitment lead time, and the BLS producer price indices for transformers and switchgear. A fourth leg is backlog as stated in filings by Powell, Eaton, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Caterpillar, Cummins and Generac, which the Book-to-Bill League Table tracks quarterly and the Monitor cites.
What the Monitor is not, in version 0.1, is a survey. We have not called distributors, we hold no quotes, and no number in this piece rests on a panel. The methodology page carries the version number for that reason, and the OEM Disclosure Scorecard grades the vendors on whether they publish at all. When a cell reads “Terrapin, 40 to 65 weeks, June 2026”, that is what a contractor wrote on its website about its own slot reservations, and the reader should weigh it as such.
The Only OEM That Publishes a Schedule
Schneider Electric publishes a Lead Times Guide on or about the second of every month, as a PDF, with a disclaimer that the figures are “for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for actual orders”. The September 2026 edition, published September 2, has 124 product rows, 104 of them with a made-to-order lead time counted from release to manufacturing. We parse it, keep every edition, and it becomes the OEM leg of the Monitor. No other US electrical OEM does this in public. Eaton, ABB and Vertiv publish nothing; Siemens publishes something, and we will come to what.
Source: Schneider Electric, Lead Times Guide, September 2026, via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
Read across the families: LV switchgear (the LVDO line) is 45 to 50 weeks across six rows, busway is 24 weeks for I-Line II and 40 for plug-in units, MV switchgear runs 15 to 25 weeks for HVL load-interrupter gear and more than 40 for GHA and MCLD, switchboards are 18 to 34 weeks by frame, motor control centers 6 to 27 weeks by section count, drives 4 to 32 weeks (12 to 16 for the transactional Altivar range), and LV dry-type transformers 4 to 9 weeks across 13 rows. The one MV paralleling line, ASCO Power Control Systems at medium voltage, is 50 weeks.
The guide colour-codes change. Orange means the lead time got longer since the prior edition, green means shorter, and Schneider prints the direction but not the previous value. We read the colours off the September pages.
Source: Schneider Electric, Lead Times Guide, September 2026, via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
CSV: data/03-schneider-flags-sep-2026.csv
Twelve rows moved out and seven moved in: all six LV switchgear rows went longer to 45 and 50 weeks, the SureSeT metal-clad line went to 18 to 30, and four breaker rows including the MTZ frames at 24 weeks went longer, while HVL and HVLCC medium-voltage gear came in to 15 to 25 weeks and three ASCO transfer-switch frames shortened. That is the entire month-over-month record the Monitor has today. Our history file starts with this edition and grows by one block a month; by the switchgear cost piece we will have a run of editions to plot.
The second OEM schedule in circulation needs a date on it. VAWN’s lead-time index page cites “Siemens CompAS” for low-voltage switchgear at 54 weeks, switchboards at 32 to 41 and busduct at 27, and the electrical trade press repeats those as Siemens’ published LV schedule. The page they point to is Siemens’ CompAS “Lead Time Adjustments” notice, and the document behind it is a letter to distributors dated April 25, 2022, which set 54 weeks for LV switchgear “for all orders not released by May 9th 2022” and warned of a further 7-week extension on June 6, 2022. The Monitor carries the Siemens rows with that date. A 2022 letter is a data point about 2022, and the honest current OEM figure for LV switchgear is Schneider’s 50 weeks.
Rockwell Automation is the case at the other end. Its public supply-chain page says some product lines have “returned to pre-pandemic lead times” and others “remain constrained”, and tells buyers to work with your distributor for any actual figure. The Monitor’s PLC-CPU cell is therefore empty and says so, and the drives cell is Schneider’s. The ControlLogix lead-time cycle is the story of why that matters.
Where the Longest Numbers Come From
For seven classes there is no OEM schedule, and the Monitor shows the best-documented third-party figure with its author’s name on it. Wood Mackenzie’s T&D supply-chain survey is the most cited, and its October 15, 2025 note put generator step-up transformers at 143 weeks on average and power transformers at 128 weeks in Q2 2025, with MV switchgear at 44 and pad-mount transformers still rising. VAWN reports Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 read as above 160 weeks for substation units; that figure comes to us second-hand and is labelled so. Siemens Energy’s own press release on its Charlotte expansion said US large power transformer lead times run up to five years, which is an OEM statement about the market, not a schedule for its own plant. The transformer piece works through who gets delivered first.
Terrapin Construction Group, a general contractor, published its own slot-reservation data on June 10, 2026: pad-mount 0 to 5 MVA at 40 to 65 weeks, substation 5 to 50 MVA at 65 to 110, diesel gensets 1,500 to 4,500 kW at 50 to 110, UPS at 30 to 60, MV switchgear 52 to 104 weeks by voltage class. Origin Partners, a power consultancy, updated its tracker on May 22, 2026 with chillers at 40 to 70 weeks, CDUs at 30 to 50, metal-clad MV switchgear at 80 to 110 and new-build GSUs at 130 to 160. Both are the authors’ own procurement experience, not surveys, and the Monitor says so in the source column.
The two trackers disagree by more than 2x on diesel gensets, and the Monitor prints the conflict rather than picking one. Terrapin has a 1,500 to 2,000 kW diesel at 50 to 66 weeks; Origin has a 1.5 to 3 MW standby diesel at 26 to 40. Neither is an OEM figure. What the OEMs have said is qualitative: Cummins’ CEO told the Q4 2025 call on February 5, 2026 that the company is taking power-generation orders “well into 2028” and does not quantify its backlog; Caterpillar’s 10-Q for June 30, 2026 shows $72.1 billion of firm backlog, $29.2 billion of it beyond twelve months. The genset piece and the Genset TCO tool carry the class detail.
Chillers and CDUs are the same shape. Trane, Carrier and Johnson Controls publish no lead times; the only OEM datapoint is a delivery window in a press release, such as Munters’ SEK 2.1 billion order for CRAHs, CDUs and chillers with deliveries from Q4 2026 through Q1 2028. The chiller piece treats that class in full, and the Datacenter MEP Cost Table carries each line’s lead time from the Monitor.
Source: Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
CSV: data/07-coverage-by-class.csv
Four rows are OEM schedules (MV switchgear, LV switchgear and switchboards, MCC and busway, drives), one row is half covered (PLC CPUs have no figure, drives do), and the six remaining rows lean on Wood Mackenzie, Terrapin, Origin or a trade association figure republished by VAWN, which is the 30-week NEMA number for distribution transformers.
The launch table, compressed to one row per class:
| Class | Published lead time | Who published it | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large power transformers (>100 MVA) | 128 wk avg (power), 143 wk avg (GSU); >160 wk 2026 read | Wood Mackenzie survey; 2026 read via VAWN | 2025-10-15; 2026-08-13 |
| Medium power transformers (5 to 50 MVA) | 65 to 110 wk | Terrapin Construction Group | 2026-06-10 |
| Pad-mount distribution transformers | 40 to 65 wk; 30 wk | Terrapin; NEMA via VAWN | 2026-06-10; 2026-08-13 |
| MV switchgear | 15 to >40 wk | Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide | 2026-09-02 |
| LV switchgear and switchboards | 18 to 50 wk | Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide | 2026-09-02 |
| MCC and busway | 6 to 40 wk | Schneider Electric Lead Times Guide | 2026-09-02 |
| UPS | 30 to 60 wk | Terrapin Construction Group | 2026-06-10 |
| Diesel gensets | 50 to 110 wk; 26 to 40 wk (conflict) | Terrapin; Origin Partners | 2026-06-10; 2026-05-22 |
| Chillers | 40 to 70 wk | Origin Partners | 2026-05-22 |
| CDUs | 30 to 50 wk | Origin Partners | 2026-05-22 |
| PLC CPUs or drives | drives 4 to 32 wk; CPUs none | Schneider Electric; Rockwell publishes none | 2026-09-02 |
CSV: data/lead-time-monitor-v0.1.csv (49 rows, every row with document and URL)
Three Series That Move Before the Quotes
A published lead time is a lagging number: the OEM changes the guide after the backlog has already grown. Three public series move first, and the Monitor carries them as context on the same page.
Source: Census M3 35C via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
Census M3 for NAICS 3353, which covers transformers, switchgear, motors, generators and relays, shows $28.4 billion of unfilled orders against $5.0 billion of monthly shipments in July 2026, a ratio of 5.7 months, against a 2017 to 2019 average of 3.2 and a peak of 7.07 in October 2022. The ratio has not been below 5.4 months since December 2021. Read it as the whole industry’s backlog in months of output: when it rises, every OEM’s guide follows within a few editions, and when it falls, the guide lags on the way down too. The Census publishes about the first business day of each month, so the Monitor’s monthly update lands the same week.
Source: BLS PPI WPU117409, WPU1175 via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
The BLS producer price index for power and distribution transformers stood at 381.8 in July 2026, 91% above January 2020 and 4.6% above June, the largest single month since 2022; switchgear and switchboards were at 419.3, 78% above January 2020. Price is the other face of the same queue. When a factory is sold out, the list price moves before the guide does, which is why the switchgear cost decomposition and the Monitor are two views of one table.
Source: ISM Manufacturing Report On Business via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
ISM’s Supplier Deliveries Index read 59.3 in August 2026, its ninth month above 50 (the index is inverted, so above 50 means slower deliveries), and the same release put the average commitment lead time for capital expenditures at 171 days, production materials at 84 and MRO supplies at 48. Electrical components have appeared on ISM’s “commodities in short supply” list for 14 consecutive months. The capex lead-time table is the most ignored number in the report, and it gets its own piece. We rebuilt sixteen months of both series from the monthly releases because ISM’s own archive is members-only; the rows and the release URLs are in data/06-ism-supplier-deliveries-capex.csv.
The Backlog Leg
The fourth input is what OEMs tell the SEC. A backlog figure with a twelve-month split is the closest thing to a published lead time that most of these companies produce.
Source: SEC filings and earnings calls via Open Factory Lead-Time Monitor
CSV: data/08-backlog-from-filings.csv
Powell Industries reported $2.4 billion of backlog at June 30, 2026, with about $1.3 billion expected to convert within twelve months, which for a switchgear house implies more than a year of work already sold. Caterpillar’s $72.1 billion carries $29.2 billion beyond twelve months. GE Vernova’s Electrification segment booked $6.3 billion of orders against a book-to-bill of about 1.7 in the June quarter. Eaton publishes no dollar backlog, only that Electrical backlog grew 43% year over year with a rolling book-to-bill of 1.2. Vertiv’s $15.0 billion at December 31, 2025 is the last figure it published before dropping the disclosure, which is why we estimate it. Generac’s datacenter backlog is about $1.6 billion as of July 29, 2026. The Q2 2026 league table ranks all of them.
How a Cell Is Built
The rules, in the order we apply them. First, an OEM’s own dated schedule beats everything: if Schneider prints 50 weeks for LVDO on September 2, that is the cell, and the Monitor does not average it with a survey. Second, when no OEM schedule exists, the cell shows the most recent third-party figure with a named author, a document and a date, and the author’s name is part of the cell. Third, when two third parties conflict, both appear. Fourth, an OEM statement in a filing or press release (“up to five years”, “orders well into 2028”) is recorded as a statement, never converted into a week count for the chart. Fifth, a republished figure (Siemens via VAWN, NEMA via VAWN) carries both names and the date of the underlying document where we can find it, which is how a 2022 letter gets its 2022 date back.
Refresh cadence follows the sources: Schneider on or about the second of the month, Census M3 and ISM on the first business day, BLS PPI mid-month with four months of preliminary values, filings quarterly. The Monitor publishes on the first business day of each month with whatever the sources have released, and every edition’s rows are kept so the history accumulates. Our own compilation, the Schneider parse and the ISM rebuild are in the CSVs linked above; nothing in the charts comes from anywhere else.
What OEMs Could Publish Tomorrow
The Monitor gets better in proportion to what the OEMs put on a public page, and today only one of them does it. Schneider’s guide is the model. It is a PDF, it is disclaimed, and it is still the only dated, product-level lead-time schedule any US electrical OEM publishes. Three additions would make it the industry reference: the prior month’s value next to the colour flag, so the change is a number and not an adjective; UPS and MV transformers, which the guide omits although Schneider sells both; and a stable URL per edition, so a buyer can cite the June guide in a June PO.
Siemens should date its CompAS page. The 54-week LV switchgear figure is circulating in 2026 as current because the page carries no date and the letter behind it is from April 2022; a monthly refresh with a publication date would make Siemens the second OEM with a live row. Eaton, ABB and Vertiv publish nothing, and each of them tells the SEC a backlog growth rate or a book-to-bill every quarter; a dollar backlog with a twelve-month split, which Powell and Caterpillar already provide, is the minimum that lets a buyer convert a filing into a delivery year. Caterpillar, Cummins and Generac could publish lead time by kW band the way their dealers already quote it. Trane, Carrier and Johnson Controls could publish lead time by tonnage band. Rockwell could publish the ControlLogix schedule its distributors hold. Every one of these disclosures is graded on the OEM Disclosure Scorecard, and every company named here receives this text ten business days before publication.
What to Do Monday
Pull the launch CSV and put the source column into your schedule risk register, not just the week count. A 50-week Schneider figure and a 50-to-66-week Terrapin figure are different kinds of number: one is the OEM’s own planning guide for the product you are buying, the other is a contractor’s experience of a class. Where your class is grey on the first chart (transformers, gensets, UPS, chillers, CDUs), the published number is not the OEM’s and your PO should say what the OEM’s is: write the quoted lead time, the release-to-ship convention and the liquidated damages into the order, and use the Lead-Time-Adjusted Schedule to see what a 12-week slip on that one line does to energization.
Check every quote against the OEM’s published figure before you sign. If a distributor quotes 60 weeks on Schneider LVDO when the September guide says 50, the Quote Check tool will show the gap, and the ten weeks are either the distributor’s queue or a spec that is not in the guide’s standard row. For a pad-mount or substation unit, run the Transformer Sizing and Cost tool to see whether a size step changes which queue you are in, since the Terrapin bands jump from 40 to 65 weeks at 5 MVA to 65 to 95 above it. Watch the Census ratio and the ISM index on the first business day; if the 5.7 months rises again and supplier deliveries stay above 58, expect the next Schneider edition to carry more orange than green. Run the Tariff Exposure Calculator on the same BoM, because price and lead time move together: the transformer PPI rose 4.6% in July 2026 alone, and a line that reprices is a line whose queue is full.
What Version 1 Adds
Version 0.1 is the public record, compiled and dated. Version 1 adds the panel: a distributor and EPC panel reporting, by OEM and class, the lead time quoted at order and the lead time actually delivered, so the Monitor can show quoted versus shipped for Schneider, Eaton, ABB, Siemens, Vertiv, Caterpillar and Cummins side by side. Panel cells will publish only when a cell has five or more contributors and eight or more quotes with no contributor above 40%, the same rules that govern the Equipment Price Benchmark, and contributors stay anonymous. Until those cells exist, no article of ours will print a panel number, and the model page will say version 0.x.
Two more legs are already in the pipeline. The Public Bid-Tab Price Book is pulling award dates and delivery dates from utility and municipal procurement records, which gives a second, independent measure of transformer and switchgear lead times from public documents rather than from anyone’s survey. And the Schneider history file, one block a month from September 2026, becomes the first public month-over-month series of an OEM’s own lead-time changes by product line. The headline table stays free. Class detail with every source row is Pro, and the history and API are institutional, with the methodology on the model page and the sources named on every chart.